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Polls: Walker, Clinton leading 2016 races in Iowa

Polls: Walker, Clinton leading 2016 races in Iowa

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CEDAR RAPIDS, Iowa | Two more polls confirm that Hillary Clinton and Wisconsin Gov. Scott Walker are leading their parties’ races for the 2016 presidential nomination.

Former Secretary of State Hilary Clinton leads her closest competitor, Vermont Sen. Bernie Sanders, by more than 3-to-1 advantage in a KBUR-AM and Monmouth College Midwest Matters poll of 1,000 likely Democratic caucusgoers.

Clinton has the support of 63 percent of Democrats in Iowa compared with 20 percent for Sanders. Former Maryland Gov. Martin O’Malley is at 5 percent, former Virginia Sen. Jim Webb is at 3 percent and former Rhode Island Gov. Lincoln Chaffee at 1 percent. Eight percent were undecided.

“The results of the poll fit in pretty well with what the rest of the polls are showing,” said Robin Johnson, host of “Talking Politics” on KBUR in Burlington and part-time lecturer at Monmouth College. “Hillary Clinton has a sizable lead in Iowa. Bernie Sanders is the main competition, and he’s risen to 20 percent of the vote so far”

On the Republican side, Walker, who will officially enter the race July 13, maintains a lead among likely Iowa caucus attendees.

Walker polled 18 percent, former Florida Gov. Jeb Bush, 12 percent, Kentucky Sen. Rand Paul and former Arkansas Gov. Mike Huckabee all at 10 percent, Florida Sen. Marco Rubio, 9 percent, and Texas Sen. Ted Cruz, 8 percent. Billionaire businessman Donald Trump was next at 7 percent.

Retired physician Ben Carson and New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie, former Texas Gov. Rick Perry, former Pennsylvania Sen. Rick Santorum, businesswoman Carly Fiorina, Louisiana Gov. Bobby Jindal, 2 percent, and Ohio Gov. John Kasich were at 5 percent or less.

If there was a surprise in the results, Johnson said it was Trump, who is running second to Walker among men and leads among voters age 35-44.

“I still think he faces long odds in getting the nomination,” Johnson said, “but he could be very important in driving the conversation as this campaign takes shape.”

Other findings of the Midwest Matters Poll included:

• Bush received 16 percent of the female vote, but only 6 percent of the male vote. Walker did far better among men than women – 21 percent to 15 percent. Fiorina, the only woman in the race, polls equally among men and women.

• Clinton leads Sanders among women by 69 percent to 14 percent while her lead among men is at 52 percent to 31 percent.

• Clinton also leads among all age groups except 18-24 year olds where Sanders leads 52 percent to 42 percent. Sanders generally performed better among voters under 45 while Clinton performs better among Iowa Democrats older than 45.

• Bush leads among the youngest and oldest age categories in the poll -- 18-24 and 65-plus. Paul leads among voters 25-34, Trump among voters 35-44 and Walker among voters 45-64.

• Clinton leads in all regions of the state and does best in southwest and south central Iowa. Sanders comes closest in northwest Iowa where Clinton’s lead is 44 to 25 percent. Sanders does slightly better in central and Eastern Iowa, but Clinton still enjoys a wide lead.

• Walker leads in five of nine regions and is first or second in all regions. Huckabee leads in three and Bush in one. Walker did best in the region abutting his state, with 25 percent in northeastern Iowa.

The poll of 1,000 automated responses among likely Republican caucusgoers and 1,000 Democratic caucusgoers was conducted by We Ask America from June 27-29. It has a margin of error rate of +/- 3.1 percent.


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